Do I ship it?

GamesFlightFlight + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Flight game?

Flight + Multiple Endings

Only 15 developers shipped a Multiple Endings Flight game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SpaceBourne 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×4728 the market median. Revenue is up 820% on the market; 31 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 820% on the market, 31 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $73k → $23k → $1.8k → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $113k (exactly $112,875)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 40
Announced 31
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 820% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Multiple Endings
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 5,901 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Rez Infinite older $24.99 1,166 91% 35k $874k (exactly $874,150) Monstars Inc., Resonair
Spirit Realm · EA older $18.18 1,379 76% 41k $752k (exactly $752,107) 深圳市灵境互娱科技有限公司
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
ROGUE FLIGHT $19.99 279 96% 8.4k $167k (exactly $167,316) Truant Pixel, LLC
Wild Blue Skies $14.99 251 58% 7.5k $113k (exactly $112,875) Chuhai Labs, VITEI BACKROOM Inc.
Acceleration of SUGURI 2 older $8.99 283 92% 8.5k $76k (exactly $76,325) Orange_Juice
Godrop older $8.99 269 93% 8.1k $73k (exactly $72,549) KATOR Game Studio, ZeroCastle game Stud… (KATOR Game Studio, ZeroCastle game Studio)
Airline Flight Attendant Simulator VR older $24.99 39 66% 1.2k $29k (exactly $29,238) AVIAR B.V.
东方远空界 ~ Ultimate Vitality of Imagination older $9.99 90 83% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) 神心飘游堂
Max Mustard $19.99 38 94% 1.1k $23k (exactly $22,789) Toast Interactive
The Chaser's Voyage $19.99 3 100% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Bright at Midnight: A Game Studio
Alastrius: Star-Fighter $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Caledonia Interactive
BunnyFly: Season of Summer $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) RocketMooseX
Forces of Ether $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Kaloyan Kaludov
3D Raid River $0.99 6 66% 180 $178 (exactly $178) MLB-Miagui

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.