Do I ship it?

Games › Flight › Flight + Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Management Flight game?

Flight + Management

Of 27 developers who shipped a Management Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×8.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is up 1090% on the market; 71 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1090% on the market, 71 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $1.5M → $5.1k → $2.5k → $5.5k → $1.8k → $54k (still earning) → $94k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,513)
Top 25% $94k (exactly $94,462)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 85
Announced 71
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1090% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Management; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Economy, Sandbox
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 10,231 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $94k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M Transport Fever 2 2019 · $32M Avorion 2020 · $9.7M Transport Fever 2016 · $8.3M Airport CEO 2021 · $5.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
Airport CEO older $24.99 7,752 83% 233k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,674) Apog Labs
Bomber Crew older $15.99 10,416 88% 312k $5.0M (exactly $4,996,555) Runner Duck
X Rebirth older $29.99 5,156 42% 155k $4.6M (exactly $4,638,853) Egosoft
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
SimAirport older $24.99 3,909 79% 117k $2.9M (exactly $2,930,577) LVGameDev LLC
Star Trek: Infinite older $29.99 3,030 41% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) Nimble Giant Entertainment
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Ground of Aces · EA $29.99 1,415 84% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) Blindflug Studios AG
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Cabin Crew Life Simulator · EA $12.99 505 70% 15k $197k (exactly $196,798) SOGA Std
Drone Sector · EA $16.99 366 89% 11k $187k (exactly $186,550) Icosphere
Lou's Lagoon $24.99 126 75% 3.8k $94k (exactly $94,462) Tiny Roar
Terminal One $19.99 96 66% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) Terminal Reality
Airport Baggage Simulator $17.99 100 92% 3.0k $54k (exactly $53,970) Three River Games (3RG)
ATC Ground Point $15.99 77 81% 2.3k $37k (exactly $36,937) Blueon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.