Do I ship it?

GamesFlightFlight + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Flight game?

Flight + Historical

Only 17 developers shipped a Historical Flight game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2205 the market median. Revenue is up 1155% on the market; 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 1155% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $300 → $599 → $1.9k
Outcomes for Flight + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $220k (exactly $220,475)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 68
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1155% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 5,997 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $600, 1 in 4 over $220k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Stalingrad older $49.99 8,749 79% 262k $13M (exactly $13,120,875) FOR-GAMES CR LTD
Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator $34.99 1,319 97% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) Lyra Creative
Ground of Aces · EA $29.99 1,415 84% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) Blindflug Studios AG
Aces of Thunder $29.99 1,159 57% 35k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,752) Gaijin Entertainment
IL-2 Sturmovik: 1946 older $9.99 2,653 88% 80k $795k (exactly $795,104) 1C: Maddox Games
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Land of War - The Beginning older $19.99 713 53% 21k $428k (exactly $427,586) MS GAMES
Project Gunship · EA older $14.99 836 75% 25k $376k (exactly $375,949) Sklorite Studios LLC
Galaxy on Fire 2™ Full HD older $7.99 1,479 77% 44k $355k (exactly $354,516) Fishlabs Entertainment GmbH
IL-2 Sturmovik: Cliffs of Dover Blitz Edition older $9.99 1,116 66% 33k $334k (exactly $334,465) Team Fusion Simulations, 1C: Maddox Gam… (Team Fusion Simulations, 1C: Maddox Games)
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
Valor 1944 $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Sunroom Games
HIND $7.99 8 87% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Digital Integration
Bearplane $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Matthew Burton
Furball Over the Front $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Page Blue House
Sky Scramble $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) SpunjLabs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.