Do I ship it?

GamesShop KeeperShop Keeper + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Shop Keeper?

Shop Keeper + Female Protagonist

Of 29 developers who shipped a Female-Led Shop Keeper in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×3019 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 74 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 74 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shop Keeper + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $4.2k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shop Keeper + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,456)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,150)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,433,883)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 35
Announced 74
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 1250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Shop Keeper; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Life Sim, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 10,261 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 74 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shop Keeper with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds101 devs · median $13k · 122 announced
  2. + HorrorFair32 devs · median $5.1k · 55 announced
  3. + Psychological HorrorFair26 devs · median $5.1k · 44 announced
  4. + ModernFair27 devs · median $3.2k · 28 announced
  5. + StrategyFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  6. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.5k · 27 announced
  7. + IncrementalFair56 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  9. + NaturePoor odds32 devs · median $31k · 59 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds140 devs · median $16k · 209 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds44 devs · median $16k · 96 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds40 devs · median $13k · 96 announced

All 48 pairs on the Shop Keeper page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale older $19.99 6,684 95% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,008,395) EasyGameStation
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Aeruta $19.99 2,391 94% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,433,883) FromDawn Games
inKONBINI: One Store. Many Stories $19.99 996 85% 30k $597k (exactly $597,301) Nagai Industries
Final Profit: A Shop RPG older $14.99 520 95% 16k $234k (exactly $233,844) Brent Arnold
Help! I'm Turning Into A Mermaid! $29.99 66 95% 2.0k $59k (exactly $59,380) Lached Up Games
Beauty Store Simulator $9.99 176 86% 5.3k $53k (exactly $52,747) NovaraGames
Puni the Florist $9.99 154 98% 4.6k $46k (exactly $46,154) Earthquack Games
Packing Life $9.99 99 73% 3.0k $30k (exactly $29,670) Aroko Game Studio
Arcadia Cafe $4.99 168 92% 5.0k $25k (exactly $25,150) Judas Brothers, Rassl.me
Rent Due · EA $8.99 84 58% 2.5k $23k (exactly $22,655) Green
Supurr Cat Cafe: Sandwich Rush $5.99 104 100% 3.1k $19k (exactly $18,689) 2 Nerdy Nerds

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.