Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Runner?

Runner + Female Protagonist

Of 46 developers who shipped a Female-Led Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $510, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×269 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 64 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 64 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $360 → $1.2k → $1.3k → $657 → $3.6k → $269 → $120 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $510 (exactly $510)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 5% $128k (exactly $127,715)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 162
Announced 64
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Colorful, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 15,471 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $510, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mirror's Edge™ Catalyst older $19.99 14,078 79% 422k $8.4M (exactly $8,442,577) DICE
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
Melody's Escape older $9.99 4,336 92% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,299,499) Icetesy
Nitro Express $12.99 1,069 75% 32k $417k (exactly $416,589) Grayfax Software
pureya older $5.99 2,242 96% 67k $403k (exactly $402,887) Majorariatto
TASOMACHI: Behind the Twilight older $19.99 529 75% 16k $317k (exactly $317,241) Orbital Express
Boson X older $4.99 1,327 93% 40k $199k (exactly $198,652) Ian MacLarty, Jon Kerney
Melody's Escape 2 $14.99 284 95% 8.5k $128k (exactly $127,715) Icetesy
Relooted $14.99 257 87% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) Nyamakop
Elypse older $9.99 297 71% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,011) Hot Chili Games
Momoka (wo) Wasshoi $3.50 804 94% 24k $84k (exactly $84,420) TOEI ANIMATION Co.,Ltd
WakuWaku Park $24.99 100 72% 3.0k $75k (exactly $74,970) DOUJIN3ARIES
JETRUNNER $9.99 118 96% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,365) Riddlebit Software
Sex on the beach $24.99 30 63% 900 $22k (exactly $22,491) Games For Pleasure
Abyss Runner $6.99 105 86% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,018) Asuwawagami
Sexuality in Ancient Rome $19.99 14 64% 420 $8.4k (exactly $8,396) Games For Pleasure

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.