Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Female Protagonist

Of 493 developers who shipped a Female-Led Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 799 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×6.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×951 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 799 games are announced against 285 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 799 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 493
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $5.7k → $3.1k → $3.4k → $5.4k → $2.7k → $3.1k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 493
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,236)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,673)
Top 5% $452k (exactly $451,948)
Developers, 2 yr 493
Released games 1,427
Announced 799
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Multiple Endings, Dating Sim
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 67,106 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 290 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 799 games are announced against 285 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
A Plague Tale: Requiem older $49.99 20,797 90% 624k $31M (exactly $31,189,261) Asobo Studio
To the Moon older $9.99 69,549 95% 2.1M $21M (exactly $20,843,835) Freebird Games
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
The Invincible older $29.99 10,055 87% 302k $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) Starward Industries
Little Misfortune older $19.99 11,789 92% 354k $7.1M (exactly $7,069,863) Killmonday Games AB
Lost Records: Bloom & Rage $39.99 5,873 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,045,838) DON'T NOD
Mirror 2: Project X · EA older $1.99 111,251 24% 3.3M $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs
OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition older $24.99 8,722 96% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,538,883) SIGONO INC.
Gone Home older $14.99 13,619 77% 409k $6.1M (exactly $6,124,464) Fullbright
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Sweet Home $7.99 9,910 94% 297k $2.4M (exactly $2,375,427) 开心茶房
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth $19.99 2,564 91% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.