Do I ship it?

GamesShop KeeperShop Keeper + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Shop Keeper?

Shop Keeper + Fantasy

Of 75 developers who shipped a Fantasy Shop Keeper in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 174 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×7.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1323 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 174 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 174 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shop Keeper + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 75
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $142k → $22k → $7.2k → $1.4k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shop Keeper + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 75
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,471)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,667)
Top 5% $628k (exactly $628,231)
Developers, 2 yr 75
Released games 96
Announced 174
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Shop Keeper; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cozy, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 12,760 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 174 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shop Keeper with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds101 devs · median $13k · 122 announced
  2. + HorrorFair32 devs · median $5.1k · 55 announced
  3. + Psychological HorrorFair26 devs · median $5.1k · 44 announced
  4. + ModernFair27 devs · median $3.2k · 28 announced
  5. + StrategyFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  6. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.5k · 27 announced
  7. + IncrementalFair56 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  9. + NaturePoor odds32 devs · median $31k · 59 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds140 devs · median $16k · 209 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds44 devs · median $16k · 96 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds40 devs · median $13k · 96 announced

All 48 pairs on the Shop Keeper page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale older $19.99 6,684 95% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,008,395) EasyGameStation
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
Tavern Manager Simulator 🍻 older $14.99 4,018 91% 121k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,895) One More Time
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Trash Goblin $19.99 1,574 87% 47k $944k (exactly $943,928) Spilt Milk Studios Ltd
Tavern Talk - A Cozy Visual Novel older $17.99 1,456 87% 44k $786k (exactly $785,803) Gentle Troll Entertainment
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
Fell & Sell $9.99 1,428 84% 43k $428k (exactly $427,972) Art Games Studio S.A.
Rebirth Pub $17.99 700 92% 21k $378k (exactly $377,790) Seikou Soft.
Potion Tycoon $19.99 629 71% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Snowhound Games
Tabletop Game Shop Simulator $12.99 480 84% 14k $187k (exactly $187,056) Ludogram, Knight Fever Games
Sugardew Island - Your cozy farm shop $16.99 291 76% 8.7k $148k (exactly $148,323) rokaplay
Cozy Keep: Farm, Craft, Manage · EA $14.99 315 93% 9.5k $142k (exactly $141,656) Unbossed Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.