Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Runner?

Runner + Fantasy

Of 89 developers who shipped a Fantasy Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 37 developers shipped in the last year and 97 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 97 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 89
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $150 → $359 → $269 → $270 → $299 → $90 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 89
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $959 (exactly $959)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $11,377)
Developers, 2 yr 89
Released games 316
Announced 97
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, 3D Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,513 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $950, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phantom Abyss older $19.99 1,962 81% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,176,611) Team WIBY
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame
TASOMACHI: Behind the Twilight older $19.99 529 75% 16k $317k (exactly $317,241) Orbital Express
Summer Catchers older $8.99 347 80% 10k $94k (exactly $93,586) FaceIT
Wonder Boy: Asha in Monster World older $19.99 144 79% 4.3k $86k (exactly $86,357) G CHOICE, Monkey Craft
Rabbit Riot older $39.99 49 87% 1.5k $59k (exactly $58,785) Reactor Studios
Eggo $5.99 310 83% 9.3k $56k (exactly $55,707) 天赋一饼 Meme Crepe
Escape from Naraka older $14.99 97 76% 2.9k $44k (exactly $43,621) XeloGames
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Zardy's Cave $7.99 84 80% 2.5k $20k (exactly $20,135) Full Trek Media
HoloRun $4.99 76 57% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,377) Pixfox
Sexuality in Ancient Rome $19.99 14 64% 420 $8.4k (exactly $8,396) Games For Pleasure
Soul Drifter $14.99 16 93% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) VISIONKEEPER Studio
Fiendish Quest $9.99 23 73% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) オニチク屋!
EvoWars: New Era $8.99 25 72% 750 $6.7k (exactly $6,742) Night Steed Games
2 Bows 1 Arrow $6.99 28 100% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) SKL Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.