Do I ship it?

GamesLocal MultiplayerLocal Multiplayer + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Local Multiplayer game?

Local Multiplayer + Fantasy

Of 131 developers who shipped a Fantasy Local Multiplayer game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 247 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×794 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 247 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 247 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Multiplayer + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 131
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $2.7k → $3.0k → $2.7k → $6.0k → $2.4k → $1.5k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Multiplayer + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 131
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,192)
Top 5% $377k (exactly $376,974)
Developers, 2 yr 131
Released games 521
Announced 247
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Local Multiplayer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Co-Op, Co-op
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 91,751 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 64 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 247 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Multiplayer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HockeyStrong odds11 devs · median $3.0k · 12 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair61 devs · median $5.8k · 64 announced
  3. + Action RPGFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  4. + Hex GridFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  5. + ModernFair24 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  6. + WargameFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  7. + TennisFair18 devs · median $2.3k · 10 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 8 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair26 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  10. + Football (American)Fair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  11. + SportsFair196 devs · median $1.6k · 208 announced
  12. + RunnerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced

All 174 pairs on the Local Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 older $19.99 72,409 90% 2.2M $43M (exactly $43,423,677) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Mortal Kombat X older $19.99 39,392 88% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,623,382) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
Kingdom Two Crowns older $19.99 31,259 90% 938k $19M (exactly $18,746,022) Fury Studios, Coatsink
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
BlazBlue Centralfiction older $39.99 9,476 94% 284k $11M (exactly $11,368,357) Arc System Works
Songs of Conquest older $29.99 12,127 85% 364k $11M (exactly $10,910,662) Lavapotion
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Heroes® of Might & Magic® III - HD Edition older $14.99 20,127 79% 604k $9.1M (exactly $9,051,112) Dotemu
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
LEGO® Harry Potter™ Collection $39.99 1,464 82% 44k $1.8M (exactly $1,756,361) TT Games, Double Eleven
Tales of Graces f Remastered $39.99 773 87% 23k $927k (exactly $927,368) TOSE CO., LTD.
Wild Woods · EA $14.99 1,746 78% 52k $785k (exactly $785,176) Octofox Games
PAC-MAN WORLD 2 Re-PAC $29.99 694 90% 21k $624k (exactly $624,392) NOW PRODUCTION Co., Ltd.
The Jackbox Party Pack 11 $29.99 419 93% 13k $377k (exactly $376,974) Jackbox Games, Inc.
DOKAPON! Sword of Fury $24.99 354 85% 11k $265k (exactly $265,394) Sting
Coridden $19.99 426 89% 13k $255k (exactly $255,472) Aftnareld
SEDAP! A Culinary Adventure $14.99 517 70% 16k $232k (exactly $232,495) kopiforge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.