Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Fantasy

Of 330 developers who shipped a Fantasy Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 534 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×425 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 534 games are announced against 197 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 534 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 330
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $5.4k → $1.4k → $3.6k → $3.7k → $2.5k → $2.4k (still earning) → $3.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 330
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,700)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,949)
Top 5% $202k (exactly $202,106)
Developers, 2 yr 330
Released games 1,081
Announced 534
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 46,995 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 204 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 534 games are announced against 197 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Pyre older $19.99 8,396 90% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,035,081) Supergiant Games
Coffee Talk older $12.99 11,271 94% 338k $4.4M (exactly $4,392,309) Toge Productions
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚
Storyteller older $14.99 8,169 88% 245k $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) Daniel Benmergui
The Cosmic Wheel Sisterhood older $17.99 5,606 93% 168k $3.0M (exactly $3,025,558) Deconstructeam
Hypnospace Outlaw older $19.99 4,824 96% 145k $2.9M (exactly $2,892,953) Tendershoot, Michael Lasch, ThatWhichIs… (Tendershoot, Michael Lasch, ThatWhichIs Media)
Bishojo Mangekyo Kotowari to Meikyu no Shojo older $29.99 2,718 95% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,445,385) ωstar, Seikei Production
Stray Gods: The Roleplaying Musical older $29.99 2,570 92% 77k $2.3M (exactly $2,312,229) Summerfall Studios
Sovereign Tower $19.99 3,087 93% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) WILD WITS GAMES
Kaiju Princess 2 $17.99 3,107 96% 93k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,848) PantyParrot
The Legend of Heroes: Kai no Kiseki -Farewell, O Zemuria- $57.99 765 77% 23k $1.3M (exactly $1,330,870) Nihon Falcom
The NOexistenceN of you AND me $1.99 20,139 93% 604k $1.2M (exactly $1,202,298) 0x0Real Studio
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
美女,请别影响我成仙 $10.99 3,140 93% 94k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) 蒸汽满满工作室
The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian $24.99 1,356 74% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) Schisma Games
DevilConnection $16.66 1,951 98% 59k $975k (exactly $975,110) ChaoGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.