Do I ship it?

GamesFlightFlight + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Flight game?

Flight + Fantasy

Of 46 developers who shipped a Fantasy Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $77k, ×124 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 71 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 71 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $748 → $809 → $899 → $539 → $300 → $959 (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,994)
Top 5% $78k (exactly $77,622)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 177
Announced 71
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 3,718 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $540, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $77k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
《蜀山:初章》买断版 older $24.99 5,772 74% 173k $4.3M (exactly $4,327,268) 重楼工作室
Harry Potter: Quidditch Champions older $29.99 2,790 73% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,510,163) Unbroken Studios
AER Memories of Old older $14.99 5,064 86% 152k $2.3M (exactly $2,277,281) Forgotten Key
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios
Rez Infinite older $24.99 1,166 91% 35k $874k (exactly $874,150) Monstars Inc., Resonair
Spirit Realm · EA older $18.18 1,379 76% 41k $752k (exactly $752,107) 深圳市灵境互娱科技有限公司
Valkyrie of Phantasm $29.99 556 86% 17k $500k (exactly $500,233) AREAZERO
Draconia · EA older $19.99 798 64% 24k $479k (exactly $478,561) Draconia Dev Team
CYGNI: All Guns Blazing older $29.99 448 60% 13k $403k (exactly $403,066) KeelWorks
Underspace · EA older $19.99 434 81% 13k $260k (exactly $260,270) Pastaspace Interactive
Night Stones $9.99 259 93% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) Advance Nine
Sky Oceans: Wings for Hire $24.99 45 64% 1.4k $34k (exactly $33,736) Octeto Studios
東方资志疏 ~ Immortal Immanuel. (东方资志疏) $9.99 103 94% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) 雾雨威Channel, 沙包聚集地制作组
Firefly Village $8.99 112 86% 3.4k $30k (exactly $30,206) Josh Koenig Games
TAXINAUT $19.99 39 87% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) mosgrom
Max Mustard $19.99 38 94% 1.1k $23k (exactly $22,789) Toast Interactive
Sea Walker Saga · EA $9.99 66 93% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Antelus Games
Apidya' Special $19.99 30 93% 900 $18k (exactly $17,991) Team Apidya

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.