Do I ship it?

Games › Flight › Flight + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Flight game?

Flight + Exploration

Of 127 developers who shipped an Exploration Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 241 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2205 the market median. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 241 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 241 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 127
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $718 → $5.1k → $360 → $1.3k → $1.8k → $1.3k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 127
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,024)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554)
Developers, 2 yr 127
Released games 456
Announced 241
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 53,629 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 241 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 2024 · $45M Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M Trailmakers 2019 · $25M EVERSPACE™ 2 2023 · $18M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
X-Plane 11 older $29.99 19,206 92% 576k $17M (exactly $17,279,638) Laminar Research
SpaceEngine · EA older $29.99 15,826 96% 475k $14M (exactly $14,238,652) Cosmographic Software
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing older $19.99 13,633 95% 409k $8.2M (exactly $8,175,710) LuGus Studios
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator $34.99 1,319 97% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) Lyra Creative
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Approximately Up $24.99 995 93% 30k $746k (exactly $745,952) Approximately Games
Echoes of Elysium · EA $19.99 506 61% 15k $303k (exactly $303,448) Loric Games, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.