Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Dystopian

Only 17 developers shipped a Dystopian Tabletop game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $239 → $0 (still earning) → $8.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,800)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 28
Announced 21
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Tabletop; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Interactive Fiction, Multiple Endings
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 2,791 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Citizen Sleeper older $19.99 8,271 92% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,960,119) Jump Over The Age
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector $24.99 2,358 91% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) Jump Over The Age
Aeon's End older $14.99 438 82% 13k $197k (exactly $196,969) Handelabra Games Inc.
System Crash older $14.99 250 83% 7.5k $112k (exactly $112,425) Rogue Moon Studios
Duskpunk $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Clockwork Bird, James Patton
Vanguard Exiles · EA $19.99 61 81% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) The Tea Division
Vestiges: Fallen Tribes $24.99 36 80% 1.1k $27k (exactly $26,989) WanadevStudio
Joy Malignant $8.99 66 100% 2.0k $18k (exactly $17,800) Petros Anastasiadis
Rise of Humanity · EA older $19.99 27 62% 810 $16k (exactly $16,192) Cybernetic Walrus
AI Faith: Compute [>_AIFC] $4.99 55 81% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Beneloop.ai
Battle Of The Abyss $4.99 33 93% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) 1029studio
Magical Frontline $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) ima shouganai
The Tower of 21 $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) GingersoftGames
Hentai Succubus $0.99 8 75% 240 $238 (exactly $238) Cyber Keks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.