Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Runner?

Runner + Dystopian

Only 18 developers shipped a Dystopian Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, VHOLUME, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 27 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 27 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $120 → $238 → $1.3k → $90 → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $238 (exactly $238)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Top 5% $718k (exactly $718,080)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 58
Announced 27
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Runner; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 3D Platformer, Arcade
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 3,811 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $240, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mirror's Edge™ Catalyst older $19.99 14,078 79% 422k $8.4M (exactly $8,442,577) DICE
STRIDE older $19.99 1,975 79% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,408) Joy Way
VHOLUME $8.00 2,992 97% 90k $718k (exactly $718,080) Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels… (Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels Tiercelin)
Seen · EA older $0.99 9,326 91% 280k $277k (exactly $276,982) Seen Games
Panoptic older $16.99 281 96% 8.4k $143k (exactly $143,226) Team Panoptes
Ikarus Parkour $12.99 195 81% 5.9k $76k (exactly $75,992) Vanja Aleksić
Retrowave 2 $4.99 449 88% 13k $67k (exactly $67,215) RewindApp
《Drifting : Weight of Feathers》 older $11.99 48 72% 1.4k $17k (exactly $17,266) MING YEN WU
Synthwave Driver · EA $2.99 107 86% 3.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,598) Runebox Studios
CashGrab older $2.93 101 93% 3.0k $8.9k (exactly $8,878) Grabba Guild Games LLC
Soul Drifter $14.99 16 93% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) VISIONKEEPER Studio
Under The Red Sky · EA $7.99 26 96% 780 $6.2k (exactly $6,232) Dedra Games, Federico Calchera
Riseon $2.99 14 100% 420 $1.3k (exactly $1,256) SHINKURO VALLEY
ノースウェステリアの子供 $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Ituki Ebina
CATRUN $0.99 8 75% 240 $238 (exactly $238) Lola Fisher
Missile Pilot $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) J. A. Davies

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.