Do I ship it?

GamesMultiple EndingsMultiple Endings + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Multiple Endings game?

Multiple Endings + Dragons

Of 24 developers who shipped a Dragon Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1762 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 44 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 44 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Multiple Endings + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $88k → $1.3k → $15k → $4.3k → $3.0k → $4.9k → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Multiple Endings + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,887)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 89
Announced 44
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Multiple Endings; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 44,790 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  2. + WuxiaFair11 devs · median $230k · 18 announced
  3. + Level EditorFair17 devs · median $8.1k · 23 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair32 devs · median $5.8k · 42 announced
  5. + SuperheroFair15 devs · median $4.5k · 22 announced
  6. + 4 Player LocalFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  8. + GamblingFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  9. + TriviaFair14 devs · median $1.7k · 15 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair40 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair176 devs · median $598 · 180 announced
  12. + Arena ShooterFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced

All 214 pairs on the Multiple Endings page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Word Game older $34.99 5,930 93% 178k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) Team9
Storyteller older $14.99 8,169 88% 245k $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) Daniel Benmergui
Ghosts 'n Goblins Resurrection older $29.99 1,306 74% 39k $1.2M (exactly $1,175,008) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
VenusBlood HOLLOW International older $44.99 287 96% 8.6k $387k (exactly $387,364) Ninetail, Dualtail
The RPG $14.99 769 86% 23k $346k (exactly $345,819) Dionysus Acroreites
Sex and the Furry Titty older $6.99 996 90% 30k $209k (exactly $208,861) Furlough Games
Prophecy of Ashen $9.99 201 76% 6.0k $60k (exactly $60,240) hhyuGame
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World
Broken Alliance · EA $14.99 42 80% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Placeholder Gameworks
Knights of Messiah IF: Castle in an Alternate Dimension $12.99 39 89% 1.2k $15k (exactly $15,198) Gyu
Dragon Detective: A Friend from the Shadows $9.99 49 97% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,685) Sungazer Software LLC
The Unlife of Gorlak $9.99 43 100% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,887) LandsharkRAWR
Specters of the Deep $11.99 34 91% 1.0k $12k (exactly $12,230) Choice of Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.