Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 21 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics Diplomacy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $990; 1 in 20 cleared $5.6M, ×8935 the market median. Revenue is up 890% on the market; 50 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 890% on the market, 50 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $4.8k → $32k → $9.0k → $1.2k → $51k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $989 (exactly $989)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $50,974)
Top 5% $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 77
Announced 50
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.20

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 890% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy, Turn-Based Tactics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Grand Strategy, Political Sim
Price point
$9.20 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.20.

The top 10 games average 51% positive over 53,132 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $990, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $5.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $990. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV older $59.99 13,086 62% 393k $24M (exactly $23,550,874) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII older $59.99 5,828 57% 175k $10M (exactly $10,488,652) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power Up Kit older $39.99 3,754 92% 113k $4.5M (exactly $4,503,674) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
The Battle of Polytopia older $14.99 4,731 94% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,127,531) Midjiwan AB
Renowned Explorers: International Society older $19.99 2,307 91% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,383,508) Abbey Games
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes older $24.99 1,655 78% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) Stardock Entertainment
Politics The Game $9.99 2,526 95% 76k $757k (exactly $757,042) Simplicity Games
Prime Monster $19.99 308 83% 9.2k $185k (exactly $184,708) Cavalier Game Studios
Global Protocol: New World Order · EA $19.99 85 71% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Dorlion Interactive
Great Powers $14.99 37 67% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Flame-Dragons, Flame-Dragons
Dictator Simulator: Gradnar $4.99 84 97% 2.5k $13k (exactly $12,575) GortagonGame
CEO Sim: Cyberpunk $14.99 20 85% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) JAD Labs
CastleOn $9.20 24 91% 720 $6.6k (exactly $6,624) Lord Castleon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.