Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy + Turn-Based Combat

Only 7 developers shipped a Turn-Based Combat Diplomacy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Global Protocol: New World Order, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×6.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.2k against a market of $630. 27 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 190% on the market, 27 announced, ×6.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Diplomacy + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $989 (exactly $989)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $51k (exactly $50,974)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 32
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 22,447 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $990, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $50k.

3 in 10 developers made under $990. 27 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Millennia older $39.99 2,976 67% 89k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) C Prompt Games
Renowned Explorers: International Society older $19.99 2,307 91% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,383,508) Abbey Games
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes older $24.99 1,655 78% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) Stardock Entertainment
Interstellar Space: Genesis older $29.99 712 83% 21k $641k (exactly $640,586) Praxis Games
Nexus 5X older $14.99 884 90% 27k $398k (exactly $397,535) Whatboy Games
Pax Nova older $24.99 397 53% 12k $298k (exactly $297,631) Grey Wolf Entertainment
Halcyon 6: Starbase Commander (LIGHTSPEED EDITION) older $14.99 587 80% 18k $264k (exactly $263,974) Massive Damage, Inc.
Tortuga - A Pirate's Tale older $24.99 132 51% 4.0k $99k (exactly $98,960) Gaming Minds Studios
Space Wreck older $16.99 170 88% 5.1k $87k (exactly $86,649) Pahris Entertainment SIA
Global Protocol: New World Order · EA $19.99 85 71% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Dorlion Interactive
Great Powers $14.99 37 67% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Flame-Dragons, Flame-Dragons
MA 2 – President Simulator $4.99 13 69% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Oxiwyle Inc.
Rename the History $4.99 8 37% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Codime Dev
SIM Election USA $10.99 3 66% 90 $989 (exactly $989) SunsixStudios
Mark's Power $0.99 19 73% 570 $564 (exactly $564) Dmitriy Zaletov
Coup Ahoo $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Antti Haavikko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.