Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy + Trading

Only 11 developers shipped a Trading Diplomacy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Europa Universalis V, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $560, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $45M, ×72656 the market median. Revenue is up 300% on the market; 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 300% on the market, 39 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $6.3k → $14k → $538 → $564 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $564 (exactly $564)
Top 25% $108k (exactly $107,946)
Top 5% $46M (exactly $45,627,794)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 42
Announced 39
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 300% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy, Trading
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 26,276 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $560, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $45M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Pharaoh™: A New Era older $22.99 4,811 75% 144k $3.3M (exactly $3,318,147) Triskell Interactive
Power & Revolution 2023 Edition older $49.99 499 60% 15k $748k (exactly $748,350) Eversim
Computer Tycoon · EA older $19.99 916 84% 27k $549k (exactly $549,325) Progorion
Synergy $24.99 693 79% 21k $520k (exactly $519,542) Leikir Studio
Imperiums: Greek Wars older $29.99 453 83% 14k $408k (exactly $407,564) Kube Games
Primitive Society Simulator · EA older $19.99 647 83% 19k $388k (exactly $388,006) YSH BigDove
Cosmonautica older $9.99 948 48% 28k $284k (exactly $284,116) Chasing Carrots
The Emperor and State · EA older $14.99 314 55% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) 涂途
Tlatoani: Aztec Cities $19.99 180 83% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Perspective Games, Bellwood Studios
MA 2 – President Simulator $4.99 13 69% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Oxiwyle Inc.
Eon Empires $9.99 4 50% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Aeonforge Studio
Mark's Power $0.99 19 73% 570 $564 (exactly $564) Dmitriy Zaletov
The Tavern Tales: Medieval Simulator · EA $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Flash Ray Games
A Good Deed On Harris Avenue $2.99 6 83% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Daniel H. May
World War Forex · EA $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Leobot Electronics, Leon Botha, INESSOFT
D.R.I.F.T. $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) ResilientLogic Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.