Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Diplomacy RPG?

Diplomacy + RPG

Of 24 developers who shipped a Diplomacy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2341 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 82 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 82 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $87k → $75k → $14k → $5.4k → $6.0k → $9.3k (still earning) → $55k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 25% $97k (exactly $97,151)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 87
Announced 82
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy, RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Life Sim, Political Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 8,894 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $97k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV older $59.99 13,086 62% 393k $24M (exactly $23,550,874) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII older $59.99 5,828 57% 175k $10M (exactly $10,488,652) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Sphere of Influence - Ascension older $59.99 814 73% 24k $1.5M (exactly $1,464,956) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Renowned Explorers: International Society older $19.99 2,307 91% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,383,508) Abbey Games
The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian $24.99 1,356 74% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) Schisma Games
Romance of the Three Kingdoms X with Power Up Kit older $29.99 692 82% 21k $623k (exactly $622,592) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Star Dynasties older $30.99 421 70% 13k $391k (exactly $391,404) Pawley Games
Great Houses of Calderia older $24.99 411 60% 12k $308k (exactly $308,127) Resistance Games
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
Galaxy Princess Zorana $24.99 154 88% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Hanako Games
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
吾皇万岁 $4.99 422 68% 13k $63k (exactly $63,173) AI GAME STUDIO
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy $9.99 33 90% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio
Deluge $9.99 31 100% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) Riggy2k3

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.