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Should I ship a Diplomacy Real Time Tactics?
Diplomacy + Real Time Tactics
Only 17 developers shipped a Diplomacy Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The End of History, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×490 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 45 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.0k (exactly $5,992) |
| Top 25% | $51k (exactly $50,974) |
| Top 5% | $307k (exactly $307,440) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 62 |
| Announced | 45 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Diplomacy
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Real Time Tactics
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Diplomacy, Real Time Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Grand Strategy, Simulation, Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $28.00 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $28.00 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 1,426 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Space SimLong shot
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + PvPPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
Comparable games
Dune: Spice Wars 2023 · $12M 
Total War: ROME REMASTERED 2021 · $11M 
The Battle of Polytopia 2020 · $2.1M 
Cepheus Protocol 2020 · EA · $1.8M 
NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Sphere of Influence - Ascension 2016 · $1.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dune: Spice Wars | older | $34.99 | 11,561 79% | 347k | $12M (exactly $12,135,582) | Shiro Games |
| | Total War: ROME REMASTERED | older | $29.99 | 12,627 77% | 379k | $11M (exactly $11,360,512) | Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive |
| | The Battle of Polytopia | older | $14.99 | 4,731 94% | 142k | $2.1M (exactly $2,127,531) | Midjiwan AB |
| | Cepheus Protocol | · EA older | $19.99 | 2,983 76% | 89k | $1.8M (exactly $1,788,905) | Halcyon Winds |
| | NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Sphere of Influence - Ascension | older | $59.99 | 814 73% | 24k | $1.5M (exactly $1,464,956) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Taishi | older | $59.99 | 804 51% | 24k | $1.4M (exactly $1,446,959) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Dummynation | older | $11.99 | 3,127 88% | 94k | $1.1M (exactly $1,124,782) | Alejandro Hernández Ferrero |
 | NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Sphere of Influence | older | $59.99 | 571 83% | 17k | $1.0M (exactly $1,027,629) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Medieval Kingdom Wars | older | $14.99 | 2,233 76% | 67k | $1.0M (exactly $1,004,180) | Reverie World Studios |
 | NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Souzou | older | $24.99 | 1,107 86% | 33k | $830k (exactly $829,918) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | The End of History | · EA | $28.00 | 366 68% | 11k | $307k (exactly $307,440) | Tatamibeya |
 | AfterWar | $34.99 | 139 72% | 4.2k | $146k (exactly $145,908) | Dmytro Lumen | |
 | King's Orders | $14.99 | 257 70% | 7.7k | $116k (exactly $115,573) | AFTERLIFE👻 | |
 | Knights of the Crusades | $19.99 | 166 69% | 5.0k | $100k (exactly $99,550) | Reverie World Studios | |
 | Renaissance Kingdom Wars | $19.99 | 141 70% | 4.2k | $85k (exactly $84,558) | Reverie World Studios | |
 | Global Protocol: New World Order | · EA | $19.99 | 85 71% | 2.6k | $51k (exactly $50,974) | Dorlion Interactive |
 | Myths and Legends | $17.99 | 54 92% | 1.6k | $29k (exactly $29,144) | Artificial Worlds | |
 | Riftborne | · EA | $7.99 | 108 91% | 3.2k | $26k (exactly $25,888) | Pitio Productions |
 | Countryballs Conquest | $4.99 | 85 87% | 2.6k | $13k (exactly $12,724) | Indenial Games | |
 | Nuice Industries | · EA | $7.99 | 25 96% | 750 | $6.0k (exactly $5,992) | CastleWind |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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