Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Political Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Political Sim Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy + Political Sim

Of 52 developers who shipped a Political Sim Diplomacy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 110 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $770k, ×1241 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 110 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 110 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Political Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $78k → $98k → $5.4k → $9.0k → $900 → $9.6k → $3.3k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + Political Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $838 (exactly $838)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,798)
Top 25% $90k (exactly $89,670)
Top 5% $779k (exactly $779,220)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 147
Announced 110
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy, Political Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Grand Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 53% positive over 53,292 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $89k, 1 in 20 over $770k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 7 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 110 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Tropico 6 older $39.99 19,837 88% 595k $24M (exactly $23,798,449) Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Democracy 4 older $29.99 5,891 81% 177k $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) Positech Games
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator · EA older $6.99 8,904 96% 267k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) JoySpark Games
Power & Revolution 2020 Edition older $49.99 769 63% 23k $1.2M (exactly $1,153,269) Eversim
Dummynation older $11.99 3,127 88% 94k $1.1M (exactly $1,124,782) Alejandro Hernández Ferrero
The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian $24.99 1,356 74% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) Schisma Games
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Politics The Game $9.99 2,526 95% 76k $757k (exactly $757,042) Simplicity Games
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond $24.99 253 39% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) Jujubee
Prime Monster $19.99 308 83% 9.2k $185k (exactly $184,708) Cavalier Game Studios
Crisis in the Kremlin: The Cold War $7.99 698 80% 21k $167k (exactly $167,311) Nostalgames
AfterWar $34.99 139 72% 4.2k $146k (exactly $145,908) Dmytro Lumen
King's Orders $14.99 257 70% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) AFTERLIFE👻

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.