Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy + Multiple Endings

Of 25 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Diplomacy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1619 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 46 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 46 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $3.4k → $83k → $10k → $9.9k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,699)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,370)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 79
Announced 46
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 215% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy, Multiple Endings; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Political Sim, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 4,794 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian $24.99 1,356 74% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) Schisma Games
The Fermi Paradox · EA older $18.99 956 76% 29k $545k (exactly $544,633) Anomaly Games
The Shrouded Isle older $12.99 1,166 71% 35k $454k (exactly $454,390) Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau,… (Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau, Tanya Short)
Six Ages: Ride Like the Wind older $19.99 460 81% 14k $276k (exactly $275,862) A Sharp
Halcyon 6: Starbase Commander (LIGHTSPEED EDITION) older $14.99 587 80% 18k $264k (exactly $263,974) Massive Damage, Inc.
Ambition: A Minuet in Power older $20.99 334 85% 10k $210k (exactly $210,320) Joy Manufacturing Co.
Crisis in the Kremlin older $4.99 1,372 83% 41k $205k (exactly $205,388) Nostalgames
China: Mao's legacy older $6.99 978 90% 29k $205k (exactly $205,087) Nostalgames
Crisis in the Kremlin: The Cold War $7.99 698 80% 21k $167k (exactly $167,311) Nostalgames
Galaxy Princess Zorana $24.99 154 88% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Hanako Games
For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee $14.99 176 88% 5.3k $79k (exactly $79,147) KMS STUDIO
Lunar Ascendant $14.99 86 44% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Darts Games
Your Crown Is Mine $18.99 34 82% 1.0k $19k (exactly $19,370) Lyyycaena
CODE: PANDORA 2 $9.99 35 74% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Towndarktales
Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy $9.99 33 90% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio
CEO Sim: Cyberpunk $14.99 20 85% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) JAD Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.