Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy + Exploration

Of 21 developers who shipped an Exploration Diplomacy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2341 the market median. Revenue is up 1445% on the market; 69 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 1445% on the market, 69 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.6M → $40k → $29k → $0 → $9.6k → $9.3k (still earning) → $33k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,144)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 72
Announced 69
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1445% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy, Exploration; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Economy, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 6,404 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion older $19.99 10,243 93% 307k $6.1M (exactly $6,142,727) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Star Trek: Infinite older $29.99 3,030 41% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) Nimble Giant Entertainment
Galactic Civilizations IV older $39.99 2,207 72% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,647,738) Stardock Entertainment
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
ENDLESS Space™ - Definitive Edition older $9.99 6,626 79% 199k $2.0M (exactly $1,985,812) AMPLITUDE Studios
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
Renowned Explorers: International Society older $19.99 2,307 91% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,383,508) Abbey Games
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes older $24.99 1,655 78% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) Stardock Entertainment
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
Settler's Domain $12.49 87 65% 2.6k $33k (exactly $32,599) rick
Myths and Legends $17.99 54 92% 1.6k $29k (exactly $29,144) Artificial Worlds
No Man's Land $6.99 80 87% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,776) Related Designs Software
Irbet Tong $6.99 56 100% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,743) Kyhynngy Oyuur
The Diner at the End of the Galaxy · EA $9.99 32 59% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) General Interactive Co.
Deluge $9.99 31 100% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) Riggy2k3

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.