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Should I ship an Exploration Diplomacy game?
Diplomacy + Exploration
Of 21 developers who shipped an Exploration Diplomacy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2341 the market median. Revenue is up 1445% on the market; 69 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $538 (exactly $538) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) |
| Top 25% | $29k (exactly $29,144) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 72 |
| Announced | 69 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1445% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Diplomacy
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Diplomacy, Exploration; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Economy, Management
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 6,404 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Space SimLong shot
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + PvPPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stellaris | older | $49.99 | 139,718 85% | 4.2M | $210M (exactly $209,535,085) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | HighFleet | older | $29.99 | 7,024 88% | 211k | $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) | Konstantin Koshutin |
| | Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion | older | $19.99 | 10,243 93% | 307k | $6.1M (exactly $6,142,727) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
| | Star Trek: Infinite | older | $29.99 | 3,030 41% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) | Nimble Giant Entertainment |
| | Galactic Civilizations IV | older | $39.99 | 2,207 72% | 66k | $2.6M (exactly $2,647,738) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | Surviving Mars: Relaunched | $39.99 | 2,202 55% | 66k | $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) | Haemimont Games | |
| | ENDLESS Space™ - Definitive Edition | older | $9.99 | 6,626 79% | 199k | $2.0M (exactly $1,985,812) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | House of Legacy | · EA | $14.99 | 3,269 84% | 98k | $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) | S3 Studio |
| | Renowned Explorers: International Society | older | $19.99 | 2,307 91% | 69k | $1.4M (exactly $1,383,508) | Abbey Games |
| | Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes | older | $24.99 | 1,655 78% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
| | Folk Emerging | $24.99 | 73 86% | 2.2k | $55k (exactly $54,728) | Curious Dynamics | |
| | Settler's Domain | $12.49 | 87 65% | 2.6k | $33k (exactly $32,599) | rick | |
| | Myths and Legends | $17.99 | 54 92% | 1.6k | $29k (exactly $29,144) | Artificial Worlds | |
| | No Man's Land | $6.99 | 80 87% | 2.4k | $17k (exactly $16,776) | Related Designs Software | |
| | Irbet Tong | $6.99 | 56 100% | 1.7k | $12k (exactly $11,743) | Kyhynngy Oyuur | |
| | The Diner at the End of the Galaxy | · EA | $9.99 | 32 59% | 960 | $9.6k (exactly $9,590) | General Interactive Co. |
| | Deluge | $9.99 | 31 100% | 930 | $9.3k (exactly $9,291) | Riggy2k3 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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