Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Combat › Turn-Based Combat + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Detective

Only 15 developers shipped a Detective Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Necromancer's Tale, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.3k, ×20 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1454 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 36 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 19.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 36 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $52k → $34k → $11k → $4.6k → $45k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $9.3k (exactly $9,291)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $39,398)
Top 5% $690k (exactly $690,474)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 46
Announced 36
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, JRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,046 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $9.3k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition 2019 · $16M The Thaumaturge 2024 · $4.1M This Is the Police 2 2018 · $2.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition older $49.99 10,810 89% 324k $16M (exactly $16,211,757) h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc.
The Thaumaturge older $34.99 3,888 81% 117k $4.1M (exactly $4,081,234) Fool's Theory
This Is the Police 2 older $14.99 5,330 77% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) Weappy Studio
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
MeteoriteFall $12.99 651 78% 20k $254k (exactly $253,695) ST studio
Company of Crime older $19.99 143 51% 4.3k $86k (exactly $85,757) Resistance Games
To Hell With The Ugly older $19.99 133 87% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) La Poule Noire, ARTE France
Pixel Noir older $24.99 70 72% 2.1k $52k (exactly $52,479) SWDTech Games
2 Fights in 2 Tight Spaces · EA $12.99 115 84% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Ground Shatter
Neon Blood $17.99 73 60% 2.2k $39k (exactly $39,398) ChaoticBrain Studios
The Allure Of Wanton Cove $9.99 114 78% 3.4k $34k (exactly $34,166) Ktulhu Solutions, Aftermath
Vegangsters $12.99 69 92% 2.1k $27k (exactly $26,889) Poison Pill Games
Prison Notes $9.99 38 94% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) 闻岚工坊（Vinland Studio）
Mirrored Soul $9.99 31 96% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) Mammothplant, Hex4F, Greasy McBeef
Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 1 Re-Raptored $4.99 31 87% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Pedalboard Games
Suki Suki Love $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) 0_skailer_0

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.