Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective FPS?

FPS + Detective

Of 38 developers who shipped a Detective FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×883 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 85 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 85 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $1.5k → $7.9k → $239 → $1.8k → $599 (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 25% $8.7k (exactly $8,691)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 100
Announced 85
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 18,625 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Contraband Police older $29.99 24,882 95% 746k $22M (exactly $22,386,335) Crazy Rocks
MOUSE: P.I. For Hire $29.99 14,604 93% 438k $13M (exactly $13,139,219) Fumi Games
Call of Cthulhu® older $19.99 10,962 79% 329k $6.6M (exactly $6,573,911) Cyanide Studio
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
Perfect Heist 2 older $9.99 3,711 94% 111k $1.1M (exactly $1,112,187) yeswecamp
GET EVEN older $29.99 923 76% 28k $830k (exactly $830,423) The Farm 51
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Fallen girl - Black rose and the fire of desire older $14.99 1,204 70% 36k $541k (exactly $541,439) BoRoBoRoGame
The Other Side · EA $13.99 1,181 93% 35k $496k (exactly $495,666) Vectora Games
Supernatural older $8.99 1,180 63% 35k $318k (exactly $318,246) Hitori De Productions
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative
Sniper Killer $11.99 618 86% 19k $222k (exactly $222,295) Black Eyed Priest, Henry Hoare
Pneumata $19.99 99 48% 3.0k $59k (exactly $59,370) Deadbolt Interactive
Tache Noire $16.99 50 94% 1.5k $25k (exactly $25,485) StitchedCliffs
Outbreak: Shades of Horror Chromatic Split $24.99 24 50% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) Dead Drop Studios LLC
House of Empty Names $5.99 88 87% 2.6k $16k (exactly $15,814) Sordar Studios
Mind Control: Bloody Renaissance $9.99 29 100% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) BYYONI Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.