Do I ship it?

Games › Trading › Trading + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Deckbuilding?

Trading + Deckbuilding

Only 15 developers shipped a Trading Deckbuilding in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×6.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1659 the market median. Revenue is up 9875% on the market; 37 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 9875% on the market, 37 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5M → $29k → $599 → $80k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $540 (exactly $540)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 25% $103k (exactly $103,116)
Top 5% $788k (exactly $788,203)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 31
Announced 37
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 9875% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 32%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading, Deckbuilding
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 3,507 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection Vol. 1 2023 · $1.5M Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection 2026 · $788k Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection Vol. 2 2023 · $625k Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer 2025 · $579k Bones and Coins 2026 · $153k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection Vol. 1 older $39.99 1,290 87% 39k $1.5M (exactly $1,547,613) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection Vol. 2 older $39.99 521 87% 16k $625k (exactly $625,044) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Bones and Coins $7.99 638 72% 19k $153k (exactly $152,929) Troyd Games
Entertainment Simulator $18.99 181 73% 5.4k $103k (exactly $103,116) Grizzbera Studio
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
FeeBay Simulator $5.99 167 91% 5.0k $30k (exactly $30,010) Lake Country Games
回到2001买房子 $19.99 48 72% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) 新起点制作组
Mark Out! The Wrestling Card Game older $14.99 49 93% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) DIY Experiences LLC
Soulreign $7.99 12 83% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Berraco
Egglings $2.99 14 100% 420 $1.3k (exactly $1,256) Maurice Huchler
GuildMestar $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) OffPath LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.