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Should I ship a Dating Sim Turn-Based Combat game?
Turn-Based Combat + Dating Sim
Of 41 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $22k, ×47 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2793 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 62 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $6.6k (exactly $6,597) |
|---|---|
| Median | $22k (exactly $22,385) |
| Top 25% | $86k (exactly $85,714) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 41 |
| Released games | 141 |
| Announced | 62 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Combat
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Dating Sim
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Combat, Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 16,171 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $6.6k. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + RomeFair
- + CookingFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DiceFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SolitaireFair
Comparable games
Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M 
Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M 
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
Path Of Wuxia 2022 · $30M 
Volcano Princess 2023 · $15M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 5 Royal | older | $59.99 | 91,682 96% | 2.8M | $165M (exactly $165,000,095) | ATLUS |
| | Persona 3 Reload | older | $59.99 | 43,497 95% | 1.3M | $78M (exactly $78,281,551) | ATLUS |
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | Path Of Wuxia | older | $34.99 | 28,286 78% | 849k | $30M (exactly $29,691,814) | 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司 |
| | Volcano Princess | older | $10.99 | 45,019 97% | 1.4M | $15M (exactly $14,842,764) | 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel | older | $39.99 | 5,131 94% | 154k | $6.2M (exactly $6,155,661) | Nihon Falcom |
 | 河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu ： The Books of Dragon) | older | $17.99 | 9,616 81% | 288k | $5.2M (exactly $5,189,755) | 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司 |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III | older | $59.99 | 2,770 92% | 83k | $5.0M (exactly $4,985,169) | Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 G… (Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 GmbH) |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel IV | older | $59.99 | 2,272 91% | 68k | $4.1M (exactly $4,088,918) | Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 G… (Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 GmbH) |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Aurelia | $19.99 | 2,253 94% | 68k | $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) | MirthalGames | |
 | Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening | · EA | $17.99 | 2,458 85% | 74k | $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) | U-Secret Studio |
 | Ledgerbound | $29.99 | 562 92% | 17k | $506k (exactly $505,631) | OmniMegaSuperCorp | |
 | MeteoriteFall | $12.99 | 651 78% | 20k | $254k (exactly $253,695) | ST studio | |
 | 轮回修仙传 | $4.99 | 1,085 81% | 33k | $162k (exactly $162,424) | Collider Studio | |
 | Tales of Justice Academy: Winds Arise | $10.99 | 460 71% | 14k | $152k (exactly $151,662) | 九芽川 Ninth Leaf | |
 | Cradle of Nightmare : Flowers to you | $6.99 | 705 92% | 21k | $148k (exactly $147,838) | 红锈雨 | |
 | Erannorth Renaissance | $19.99 | 186 81% | 5.6k | $112k (exactly $111,544) | Spyridon Thalassinos | |
 | K-pop Idol Stories: Road to Debut | $19.99 | 175 53% | 5.3k | $105k (exactly $104,947) | Wisageni Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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