Do I ship it?

GamesTime ManipulationTime Manipulation + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Time Manipulation game?

Time Manipulation + Dark Fantasy

Only 16 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DevilConnection, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×1553 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 25 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $1.6k → $148 (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 5% $975k (exactly $975,110)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 36
Announced 25
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Combat
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $16.66 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.66 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 98% positive over 2,014 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $480, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $970k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + DetectivePoor odds16 devs · median $6.5k · 32 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Prince of Persia: Warrior Within™ older $9.99 3,933 82% 118k $1.2M (exactly $1,178,720) Ubisoft
DevilConnection $16.66 1,951 98% 59k $975k (exactly $975,110) ChaoGames
Iron Danger older $19.99 544 73% 16k $326k (exactly $326,237) Action Squad Studios
Time Lock VR 2 older $12.99 170 88% 5.1k $66k (exactly $66,249) WR-VRG
The Ambassador: Fractured Timelines older $14.99 23 86% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) tinyDino Games
HexWind $11.99 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Charm Games
Daughter of The Void · EA $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Shaybabe
Black Heaven: A Necromantic Dating Sim older $9.99 13 84% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Occult Triangle Lab
Rilla Shotgun · EA older $7.99 13 92% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) SpaceRex Games
Grimslair $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) ThunderRam Studios
Mental Hellacious $13.99 4 50% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) MoreNEWttoStudio
Stop the Blight $12.99 4 50% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) Bouncy Washer
Miryam: The Polluted Land $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) 6.5F Studio
Eternal Price: Whispers of Mystery · EA $3.99 4 25% 120 $479 (exactly $479) 逐梦工作室
The Great Ebony Clock $5.00 3 100% 90 $450 (exactly $450) Pixel Chicken Studio
The Gate Of The Moon $1.99 5 100% 150 $298 (exactly $298) 1029studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.