Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Dark Fantasy

Of 57 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×325 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 98 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 98 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $3.2k → $7.2k → $18k → $33k → $4.9k → $719 (still earning) → $420 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,735)
Top 5% $204k (exactly $204,232)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 152
Announced 98
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 205% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tabletop; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Board Game
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 33,882 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
The Life and Suffering of Sir Brante older $19.99 8,151 89% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,888,155) Sever, Schisma Games
Dungeon Alchemist · EA older $44.99 2,666 94% 80k $3.6M (exactly $3,598,300) Briganti
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
TaleSpire · EA older $24.99 4,391 89% 132k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,933) Bouncyrock Entertainment
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Voice of Cards: The Isle Dragon Roars older $29.99 1,277 80% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,148,917) Square Enix
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition older $19.99 1,705 71% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) Dire Wolf
Talisman: Digital 5th Edition $29.99 227 70% 6.8k $204k (exactly $204,232) Nomad Games
Veritas Tales: Witch of the Dark Castle $16.99 227 86% 6.8k $116k (exactly $115,702) ジギタリス出版
Duskpunk $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Clockwork Bird, James Patton
Master of Piece · EA $14.99 197 86% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) I M GAME, I M fine
Shields of Loyalty $19.99 140 77% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mosaic Mask Studio
Dark Quest 4 $19.99 136 75% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Brain Seal Ltd
Conquest Tactics : Realm of Sin $14.99 162 69% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Singular Sunshine Studios
Doomspire $14.99 140 55% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,958) Crater Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.