Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Runner?

Runner + Dark Fantasy

Only 11 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Bloodthief, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270, ×0.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 28 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $150 → $2.7k → $3.6k → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 5% $610k (exactly $609,895)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 64
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Runner
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 93% positive over 1,218 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bloodthief $19.99 1,017 95% 31k $610k (exactly $609,895) Blargis
Elypse older $9.99 297 71% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,011) Hot Chili Games
Dark Succubus $6.99 171 77% 5.1k $36k (exactly $35,859) ZC Game
SINGULARIUM older $9.99 41 75% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) NivMiz
Otherwar older $5.99 59 66% 1.8k $11k (exactly $10,602) kantal collective
Escape From Russia: Mobilization older $0.99 230 85% 6.9k $6.8k (exactly $6,831) GosDev Production
Campfire: Night One $14.99 12 91% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Prisca, Mezey Krisztián
Umbral older $9.99 18 83% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Walter O. M. Junior
Gachi run: Running of the slaves older $0.99 178 94% 5.3k $5.3k (exactly $5,287) Slaves
Leap From Hell older $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) EpiXR Games UG
Maniac Path 3 $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Gamesforgames
Mythic Factor: Leaving the Labyrinth $9.36 1 100% 30 $281 (exactly $281) Sean Pearson
For Hell's Sake $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Fourmi Zero
Everyone Moves With You $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) DIG Games
Loreen's Purgatory $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Omega Gaming
Tales of the Cryptozoo · EA $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) PROYECTAEX
Hotel Security $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gyoddam Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.