Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Cyberpunk

Only 18 developers shipped a Cyberpunk Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, NINJA GAIDEN 4, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×4.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $17M, ×11857 the market median. Revenue is up 385% on the market; 46 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 385% on the market, 46 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $3.0k → $299 → $2.7k → $20k → $657 (still earning) → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,180)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $17,761,362)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 63
Announced 46
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 385% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Character Action Game, Action-Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 21,591 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $17M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE older $29.99 69,104 96% 2.1M $62M (exactly $62,172,869) PlatinumGames
Hi-Fi RUSH older $29.99 27,454 97% 824k $25M (exactly $24,700,364) Tango Gameworks
NINJA GAIDEN 4 $69.99 8,459 88% 254k $18M (exactly $17,761,362) PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.)
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
ICEY older $10.99 25,142 89% 754k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,317) FantaBlade Network
ANNO: Mutationem older $24.99 5,833 80% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,373,000) ThinkingStars
Killer is Dead - Nightmare Edition older $19.99 3,879 75% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,326,236) KADOKAWA GAMES / GRASSHOPPER MANUFACTURE
El Shaddai ASCENSION OF THE METATRON HD Remaster older $29.99 457 83% 14k $411k (exactly $411,163) crim Co., Ltd.
Slave Zero X older $24.99 438 75% 13k $328k (exactly $328,369) Poppy Works
The Divine Invasion older $14.99 690 79% 21k $310k (exactly $310,293) Whale Rock Games
CONERU -DIMENSION GIRL- $19.99 263 96% 7.9k $158k (exactly $157,721) HIKE Inc., Eallin Japan Co.Ltd.
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
TEXNOPLAZM · EA $15.99 65 98% 2.0k $31k (exactly $31,180) Mothership Loudspeakerz
Tales Of Glory 3 : Fists of Legend $19.99 34 88% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) BlackTale Games
AI-deal-Rays [General Edition] $5.99 112 58% 3.4k $20k (exactly $20,126) Riez-ON
Jenny the Witch $7.99 69 88% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,539) Catbird Soft
Quantum Beast $5.99 34 100% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) RaidenV_00
1989 After the War $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) SEEP

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.