Should I ship a Cyberpunk FPS?
FPS + Cyberpunk
Of 100 developers who shipped a Cyberpunk FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 255 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×2.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×1326 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 255 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,148) |
| Top 25% | $21k (exactly $21,279) |
| Top 5% | $2.0M (exactly $1,986,325) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 100 |
| Released games | 401 |
| Announced | 255 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Boomer Shooter
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 79,213 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 255 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B 
Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M 
Marathon 2026 · $54M 
RoboCop: Rogue City 2023 · $34M 
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cyberpunk 2077 | older | $59.99 | 883,400 87% | 27M | $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
| | Marathon | $39.99 | 44,919 81% | 1.3M | $54M (exactly $53,889,324) | Bungie | |
| | RoboCop: Rogue City | older | $39.99 | 28,196 86% | 846k | $34M (exactly $33,826,741) | Teyon |
| | Deus Ex: Mankind Divided | older | $29.99 | 30,709 77% | 921k | $28M (exactly $27,628,887) | Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac)) |
 | Ghostwire: Tokyo | older | $59.99 | 12,954 83% | 389k | $23M (exactly $23,313,314) | Tango Gameworks |
 | SUPERHOT | older | $24.99 | 27,765 91% | 833k | $21M (exactly $20,815,420) | SUPERHOT Team |
 | Killing Floor 3 | $39.99 | 16,493 46% | 495k | $20M (exactly $19,786,652) | Tripwire Interactive | |
 | RAGE 2 | older | $39.99 | 14,019 64% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,818,594) | id Software, Avalanche Studios |
 | Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut | older | $19.99 | 25,392 91% | 762k | $15M (exactly $15,227,582) | Eidos Montreal |
 | RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business | $29.99 | 3,931 84% | 118k | $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) | Teyon | |
 | Peripeteia | · EA | $24.99 | 3,120 86% | 94k | $2.3M (exactly $2,339,064) | Ninth Exodus |
 | Beyond Citadel | $14.99 | 4,417 96% | 133k | $2.0M (exactly $1,986,325) | doekuramori | |
 | System Shock 2: 25th Anniversary Remaster | $29.99 | 1,803 87% | 54k | $1.6M (exactly $1,622,159) | Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studio… (Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studios, Irrational Games) | |
 | METAL EDEN | $19.99 | 1,920 84% | 58k | $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424) | Reikon Games | |
 | Battle Shapers | $24.99 | 984 80% | 30k | $738k (exactly $737,705) | Metric Empire | |
 | Out of Action | · EA | $19.99 | 916 77% | 27k | $549k (exactly $549,325) | Doku Games LTD |
 | SPRAWL zero | $24.99 | 710 94% | 21k | $532k (exactly $532,287) | MAETH |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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