Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Crime

Only 13 developers shipped a Crime Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Neon Blood, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240, ×0.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 37 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 90% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 37 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $359 → $4.3k → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,316)
Top 5% $39k (exactly $39,398)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 44
Announced 37
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Tactical RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Dark Humor
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 235 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $240, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $39k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Yakuza: Like a Dragon older $19.99 28,036 93% 841k $17M (exactly $16,813,189) RGG Studio
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
This Is the Police 2 older $14.99 5,330 77% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) Weappy Studio
Omerta - City of Gangsters older $14.99 1,597 67% 48k $718k (exactly $718,171) Haemimont Games
Sunday Gold older $21.99 687 77% 21k $453k (exactly $453,214) BKOM Studios
Police Shootout older $14.99 449 55% 13k $202k (exactly $201,915) Games Incubator, Hypnotic Ants
Vigilantes older $14.99 276 80% 8.3k $124k (exactly $124,117) Timeslip Softworks
Didnapper 2 older $19.99 184 96% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) DID Games
Company of Crime older $19.99 143 51% 4.3k $86k (exactly $85,757) Resistance Games
Neon Blood $17.99 73 60% 2.2k $39k (exactly $39,398) ChaoticBrain Studios
Lustpunk 69 $8.99 83 87% 2.5k $22k (exactly $22,385) Kinky Business Group
Prison Notes $9.99 38 94% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) 闻岚工坊(Vinland Studio)
Muffles' Life Sentence $11.99 12 100% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,316) BossyPino
Seven Sinners $7.99 14 85% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) BillysBones, Grable Team
Bratki $5.99 11 72% 330 $2.0k (exactly $1,977) VZLab
Dream City Fugitive $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) DC Inspiration
Splimbo City · EA $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Splimbo Works
Pimpalot $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) EgoTrip Media
Tactical Roulette $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) AlbertFreeman

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.