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Should I ship a Crime Interactive Fiction?
Interactive Fiction + Crime
Of 118 developers who shipped a Crime Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 236 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×502 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 236 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $897 (exactly $897) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.2k (exactly $3,237) |
| Top 25% | $26k (exactly $25,787) |
| Top 5% | $316k (exactly $315,549) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 118 |
| Released games | 328 |
| Announced | 236 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Interactive Fiction
- effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
- Crime
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 14,050 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 236 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVFair
- + Match 3Fair
- + VampiresFair
- + SportsFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + PiratesFair
- + DrivingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + Board GameFair
- + SnowFair
- + BuildingFair
Comparable games
Heavy Rain 2020 · $16M 
Unheard - Voices of Crime 2019 · $6.5M 
The Case of the Golden Idol 2022 · $5.3M 
The Casting of Frank Stone™ 2024 · $5.0M 
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative 2022 · $4.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Heavy Rain | older | $19.99 | 26,503 85% | 795k | $16M (exactly $15,893,849) | Quantic Dream |
| | Unheard - Voices of Crime | older | $6.99 | 30,978 95% | 929k | $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) | NEXT Studios |
| | The Case of the Golden Idol | older | $17.99 | 9,794 97% | 294k | $5.3M (exactly $5,285,822) | Color Gray Games |
| | The Casting of Frank Stone™ | older | $29.99 | 5,580 62% | 167k | $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) | Supermassive Games |
| | AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative | older | $39.99 | 3,571 86% | 107k | $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
 | The Operator | older | $13.99 | 8,515 91% | 255k | $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) | Bureau 81 |
 | Late Shift | older | $14.99 | 7,762 86% | 233k | $3.5M (exactly $3,490,571) | CtrlMovie |
 | Far Away | older | $12.99 | 7,598 94% | 228k | $3.0M (exactly $2,960,941) | Gratesca |
 | Her Story | older | $9.99 | 8,367 89% | 251k | $2.5M (exactly $2,507,590) | Sam Barlow |
 | This Bed We Made | older | $24.99 | 3,187 90% | 96k | $2.4M (exactly $2,389,294) | Lowbirth Games |
 | The Rise of the Golden Idol | $19.99 | 3,786 92% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) | Color Gray Games | |
 | The Mermaid Mask | $19.99 | 2,776 99% | 83k | $1.7M (exactly $1,664,767) | SFB Games | |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Trials of Innocence | $16.99 | 1,308 91% | 39k | $667k (exactly $666,688) | 猫龙游戏 | |
 | HackHub - Ultimate Hacker Simulator | $16.99 | 937 88% | 28k | $478k (exactly $477,589) | HotBunny | |
 | Misty Judgment | $8.99 | 1,170 92% | 35k | $316k (exactly $315,549) | 次元边界 | |
 | Undercover | $14.99 | 667 77% | 20k | $300k (exactly $299,950) | intiny | |
 | Evil School | $7.99 | 1,058 92% | 32k | $254k (exactly $253,603) | CineGame Interactive | |
 | Refate: Echoes of Desire | $14.99 | 558 87% | 17k | $251k (exactly $250,933) | Terraflame Entertainment | |
 | Stiff Neck | $6.99 | 955 81% | 29k | $200k (exactly $200,264) | 伤官制作组 Team Uranian |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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