Should I ship a Crime FPS?
FPS + Crime
Of 52 developers who shipped a Crime FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1874 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 120 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $19,793) |
| Top 5% | $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 52 |
| Released games | 155 |
| Announced | 120 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Stealth
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 96% positive over 305,688 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 6 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Ready or Not 2023 · $398M 
Schedule I 2025 · EA · $173M 
Watch_Dogs® 2 2016 · $143M 
PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M 
PAYDAY 3 2023 · $44M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Ready or Not | older | $49.99 | 265,219 79% | 8.0M | $398M (exactly $397,748,934) | VOID Interactive |
| | Schedule I | · EA | $19.99 | 288,939 97% | 8.7M | $173M (exactly $173,276,718) | TVGS |
| | Watch_Dogs® 2 | older | $49.99 | 95,242 82% | 2.9M | $143M (exactly $142,834,427) | Ubisoft |
| | PAYDAY 2 | older | $9.99 | 445,531 89% | 13M | $134M (exactly $133,525,641) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games) |
| | PAYDAY 3 | older | $29.99 | 49,305 45% | 1.5M | $44M (exactly $44,359,708) | Starbreeze Studios |
 | Mafia III: Definitive Edition | older | $29.99 | 41,612 57% | 1.2M | $37M (exactly $37,438,316) | Hangar 13, Aspyr (Mac) |
 | RoboCop: Rogue City | older | $39.99 | 28,196 86% | 846k | $34M (exactly $33,826,741) | Teyon |
 | Thief Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,377 88% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $22,414,987) | Noble Muffins |
 | Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator | older | $24.99 | 16,166 80% | 485k | $12M (exactly $12,119,650) | Nils Jakrins |
 | PAYDAY™ The Heist | older | $9.99 | 21,870 92% | 656k | $6.6M (exactly $6,554,439) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio. |
 | RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business | $29.99 | 3,931 84% | 118k | $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) | Teyon | |
 | Crime Simulator | $14.99 | 6,244 82% | 187k | $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) | CookieDev | |
 | Psycho Patrol R | · EA | $39.99 | 2,090 88% | 63k | $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) | Consumer Softproducts |
 | Better Than Dead | · EA | $14.99 | 1,500 72% | 45k | $675k (exactly $674,550) | MONTE GALLO |
 | Alpha Response | · EA | $19.99 | 788 77% | 24k | $473k (exactly $472,564) | Ultimo Ratio Games |
 | SWAT Commander | · EA | $19.99 | 665 77% | 20k | $399k (exactly $398,800) | Red Mountain Games, Ritual Interactive |
 | Brush Burial: Gutter World | $9.99 | 838 93% | 25k | $251k (exactly $251,149) | Knife Demon Software | |
 | The Skin Stapler | $14.99 | 457 90% | 14k | $206k (exactly $205,513) | Tainted Pact | |
 | Frankie's FunClub | $14.99 | 236 65% | 7.1k | $106k (exactly $106,129) | LOVEBITES |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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