Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting FPS?

FPS + Crafting

Of 103 developers who shipped a Crafting FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 304 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1925 the market median. Revenue is up 395% on the market; 304 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 395% on the market, 304 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 103
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $13k → $1.1k → $1.4k → $8.4k → $1.8k → $7.8k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 103
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $72k (exactly $71,952)
Top 5% $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538)
Developers, 2 yr 103
Released games 375
Announced 304
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 395% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Survival, Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 504,517 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $71k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 304 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Schedule I 2025 · EA · $173M SCUM 2025 · $133M Warhammer 40,000: Darktide 2022 · $130M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Warhammer 40,000: Darktide older $39.99 108,477 72% 3.3M $130M (exactly $130,139,857) Fatshark
Far Cry 3 older $19.99 122,691 87% 3.7M $74M (exactly $73,577,793) Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment… (Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment, and Ubisoft Shanghai)
Far Cry® 4 older $29.99 68,485 84% 2.1M $62M (exactly $61,615,954) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai,… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai, Toronto, Kiev)
Far Cry® 6 older $59.99 33,280 71% 998k $60M (exactly $59,894,016) Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubis… (Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Berlin)
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Dead Island 2 older $49.99 23,309 77% 699k $35M (exactly $34,956,507) Dambuster Studios
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator $17.99 7,019 83% 211k $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) Biotech Gameworks
PIONER · EA $29.99 3,205 62% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) GFAGAMES
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
Mage Arena · EA $2.99 17,800 91% 534k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660) jrsjams
s&box $9.99 5,118 46% 154k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865) Facepunch Studios
Total Chaos $24.99 1,561 86% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) Trigger Happy Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.