Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cooking FPS?

FPS + Cooking

Of 23 developers who shipped a Cooking FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×2529 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 40 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 40 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.9k → $15k → $2.2k → $1.3k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,794)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,809)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 43
Announced 40
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Cooking; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, Action-Adventure, Character Customization
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 17,053 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SULFUR · EA $24.99 9,641 87% 289k $7.2M (exactly $7,227,858) Perfect Random
Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator $17.99 7,019 83% 211k $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) Biotech Gameworks
Hold Your Own · EA older $14.99 532 65% 16k $239k (exactly $239,240) DistrictWare inc.
Baking Bad · EA $10.99 123 32% 3.7k $41k (exactly $40,553) FunkyArmor
Zombie Diner Simulator 🥩 💀 $14.99 67 71% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Octo Games studio
Flatinside Simulator · EA $9.99 64 64% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) SncI Studios
Cakey's Twisted Bakery older $9.99 50 78% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) TinyMindz
Road Food Simulator $12.99 38 57% 1.1k $15k (exactly $14,809) 2MEDYA
We Need To Cook - Drug Empire Simulator older $4.99 84 58% 2.5k $13k (exactly $12,575) Harold Crow
Garden Of Mooj older $14.99 23 69% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Kcfos
The Sushi Bar | 寿司バー $4.99 66 50% 2.0k $9.9k (exactly $9,880) KM Studios
Kebabstar 🌯⭐ · EA $14.99 14 78% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Zeybek
Gym Camp Simulator $4.99 16 62% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) For Fun Games
Fade Survival · EA $14.99 5 60% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Phoenix Gaming Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.