Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Colony Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Colony Sim

Of 60 developers who shipped a Colony Sim Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 135 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×4.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $4.8M, ×3249 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 135 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 135 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Colony Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $45k → $14k → $18k → $479 → $8.4k → $58k → $9.0k (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Colony Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,998)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $59,370)
Top 5% $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 139
Announced 135
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Colony Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Management, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 52,381 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $59k, 1 in 20 over $4.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 135 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
Spellcaster University older $24.99 3,424 83% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,566,973) Sneaky Yak Studio
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Ancient Cities older $29.99 1,904 64% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,029) Uncasual Games
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
Highrise City older $29.99 1,240 77% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,628) Fourexo Entertainment
Laysara: Summit Kingdom $24.99 1,421 80% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,324) Quite OK Games
Orebound · EA $24.99 945 77% 28k $708k (exactly $708,466) Emberforge
Asbury Pines · EA $12.99 558 90% 17k $217k (exactly $217,453) Chaystar Unlimited LLC
Of Life and Land $24.99 288 82% 8.6k $216k (exactly $215,914) Kerzoven

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.