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Should I ship a Collectathon Visual Novel?
Collectathon + Visual Novel
Of 48 developers who shipped a Collectathon Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×714 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 65 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,726) |
| Top 25% | $41k (exactly $40,790) |
| Top 5% | $339k (exactly $338,972) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 48 |
| Released games | 160 |
| Announced | 65 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Collectathon
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Collectathon, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Exploration
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Story Rich, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 5,802 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorStrong odds
- + CapitalismStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + EconomyFair
- + ManagementFair
- + CrimeFair
- + Level EditorFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SokobanFair
- + MythologyFair
- + UnderwaterFair
- + Combat RacingFair
Comparable games
DevilConnection 2025 · $975k 
Mika and The Witch's Mountain 2025 · $402k 
Mosaique Neko Waifus 2 2020 · $384k 
Maid Cafe on Electric Street 2024 · $339k 
Mosaique Neko Waifus 3 2020 · $275k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DevilConnection | $16.66 | 1,951 98% | 59k | $975k (exactly $975,110) | ChaoGames | |
| | Mika and The Witch's Mountain | $19.99 | 671 86% | 20k | $402k (exactly $402,399) | Chibig, Nukefist | |
| | Mosaique Neko Waifus 2 | older | $4.99 | 2,563 94% | 77k | $384k (exactly $383,681) | Lil Hentai Games |
| | Maid Cafe on Electric Street | $18.99 | 595 82% | 18k | $339k (exactly $338,972) | Adventurer's Tavern | |
| | Mosaique Neko Waifus 3 | older | $4.99 | 1,840 94% | 55k | $275k (exactly $275,448) | Lil Hentai Games |
 | Kardboard Kings: Card Shop Simulator | older | $19.99 | 325 73% | 9.8k | $195k (exactly $194,902) | Henry's House, Oscar Brittain, Rob Gross |
 | Disillusion ST | $10.99 | 524 96% | 16k | $173k (exactly $172,763) | Disillusion Dev, Disillusion Dev | |
 | Sumire | older | $5.99 | 887 95% | 27k | $159k (exactly $159,394) | GameTomo Team |
 | While Waiting | $19.99 | 234 75% | 7.0k | $140k (exactly $140,330) | Optillusion | |
 | World's End Club | older | $19.99 | 228 68% | 6.8k | $137k (exactly $136,732) | IzanagiGames, Too Kyo Games, Grounding… (IzanagiGames, Too Kyo Games, Grounding Inc., ESQUADRA,inc.) |
 | 夏目友人帳 ～葉月の記～ | $49.99 | 77 80% | 2.3k | $115k (exactly $115,477) | Toydium | |
 | Chicken Hill | $2.99 | 1,134 99% | 34k | $102k (exactly $101,720) | 梗立游戏 | |
 | Maiden Cops | $9.99 | 282 87% | 8.5k | $85k (exactly $84,515) | Pippin Games | |
 | Ghostwriter Workshop | $10.99 | 137 94% | 4.1k | $45k (exactly $45,169) | 秘密結社マテンロウ計画, Studio Dragonet | |
 | Playing House | $6.99 | 197 94% | 5.9k | $41k (exactly $41,311) | 鬱薔薇檸檬(UtubaraLemon) |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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