Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Turn-Based Combat game?

Collectathon + Turn-Based Combat

Of 33 developers who shipped a Collectathon Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×2.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×278 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 68 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 68 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $1.8k → $3.6k → $57k → $1.6k → $3.0k → $599 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,550)
Top 5% $132k (exactly $131,967)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 109
Announced 68
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Crafting, JRPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 16,929 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $960, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
Cassette Beasts older $19.99 8,976 94% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,382,907) Bytten Studio
Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream older $59.99 2,166 94% 65k $3.9M (exactly $3,898,150) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Coromon older $19.99 6,327 85% 190k $3.8M (exactly $3,794,302) TRAGsoft
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Siralim Ultimate older $19.99 2,145 92% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,286,356) Thylacine Studios
Atelier Sophie: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Book DX older $39.99 972 89% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,166,108) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Crystal Project older $13.99 2,510 91% 75k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,447) Andrew Willman
Atelier Lulua ~The Scion of Arland~ older $59.99 528 88% 16k $950k (exactly $950,242) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX $39.99 257 76% 7.7k $308k (exactly $308,323) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy DX $39.99 110 85% 3.3k $132k (exactly $131,967) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Ryza 3: Alchemist of the End & the Secret Key DX $39.99 102 80% 3.1k $122k (exactly $122,369) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Seeds of Calamity $14.99 271 78% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Laborious Lark Studios
Tomomon $14.99 126 70% 3.8k $57k (exactly $56,662) ManicBuild Studio
Chronomon · EA $9.99 79 83% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Stone Golem Studios
Alchemy Quest $11.99 56 83% 1.7k $20k (exactly $20,143) Ellabelle
Guildamation $14.99 36 75% 1.1k $16k (exactly $16,189) Hammerback Games
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.