Do I ship it?

Games › Collectathon › Collectathon + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Top-Down Shooter?

Collectathon + Top-Down Shooter

Of 22 developers who shipped a Collectathon Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9k, ×6.2 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 22 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 22 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $479 → $2.9k → $1.2k → $359 → $59 (still earning) → $987 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 5% $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 53
Announced 22
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Top-Down Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvE, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, Retro, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 83 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $420, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $2.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Soundfall 2022 · $896k Night Raider 2024 · $343k Trifox 2022 · $38k Just Click The Button 2024 · $31k Sophstar 2022 · $28k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soundfall older $29.99 996 73% 30k $896k (exactly $896,101) Drastic Games
Night Raider older $5.99 1,908 85% 57k $343k (exactly $342,868) TSUKUYOMIC
Trifox older $19.99 63 82% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) Glowfish Interactive
Just Click The Button older $2.99 341 90% 10k $31k (exactly $30,588) Simon Eftestol
Sophstar older $9.99 94 100% 2.8k $28k (exactly $28,172) Banana Bytes
XeGrader plus $19.99 18 94% 540 $11k (exactly $10,795) Tokihiro NAITO
Sugar Tanks older $4.99 29 86% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) EpiXR Games UG
Angry Putin older $0.99 140 91% 4.2k $4.2k (exactly $4,158) Seito Games
X-Force Under Attack older $5.99 20 100% 600 $3.6k (exactly $3,594) Cube Games
SakuraSegment 0.3 - Prologue older $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Ulimworks
Seeker Quest: The Creature Collector $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Jestercraft
One Million Stars $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Tom Sennett Games
Monsters Loot Swag $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) YorkshireRifles
Death Nomad $9.99 6 50% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Cosmic Noise
Beef Cat Ultra $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Beef Cat
The Hunter's Path $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) JustWallWireHead Games
Cape Warrior $2.99 11 81% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Saylor Games
Lawnmower game Ufo Chase 2 $1.99 10 80% 300 $597 (exactly $597) Valkeala Software
CORPSE HUNTER $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) 墓地

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.