Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Thriller

Of 24 developers who shipped a Thriller Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 13 developers shipped in the last year and 27 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $1.9k → $359 → $1.4k → $300 → $269 (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 5% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 61
Announced 27
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Puzzle, Investigation
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 1990's, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 207 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $6.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dread X Collection 2 older $9.99 573 93% 17k $172k (exactly $171,728) DreadXP, David Szymanski, Torple Dook,… (DreadXP, David Szymanski, Torple Dook, Lovely Hellplace, Scythe Dev Team, Secret Cow Level, panstasz, Mahelyk, Daniel Mullins Games, Wither Studios, Akabaka, Vidas Salavejus, Wayward Preacher, John Szymanski, Bathysfear Labs, Abbey 'Scruncho' Smith)
Is Simon There? older $4.99 286 84% 8.6k $43k (exactly $42,814) Stanislaw Truchowski
Lost Alone Ultimate older $14.99 92 88% 2.8k $41k (exactly $41,372) Daniele Doesn't Matter
Within Skerry older $4.99 226 78% 6.8k $34k (exactly $33,832) Stanislaw Truchowski
DON'T LOOK AT GRANDMA $4.99 64 93% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Danger Sauce LLC
Let Them Breathe: Selena's Awakening older $29.99 10 90% 300 $9.0k (exactly $8,997) Mutts Presents
MeiQi 2024 $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) QZQ Studio
孙美琪疑案:雨儿胡同 older $3.99 40 75% 1.2k $4.8k (exactly $4,788) QZQ Studio
The Fox Hare Disaster: Chapter One $3.99 33 96% 990 $4.0k (exactly $3,950) Dream Oni, Cosmic Boop, Valorware
Detective Club: Gallery of Shadows Collector's Edition $11.99 10 50% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Do Games Limited
HANGAR 8 $3.99 29 86% 870 $3.5k (exactly $3,471) Twin Tail Digital
5番線おじさん救出編 Platform 5 Dungeons $4.99 14 100% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) MFC STUDIO, KOSEI YASUDA, SHINISE GAMES
7743 $3.99 12 91% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) Stanislaw Truchowski
CONCRETE $1.99 23 82% 690 $1.4k (exactly $1,373) Benjamin Pilbrow
LIMINAL SORTING $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Silly Cat
ちなみほりっく -Chinami Holic- $24.99 1 0% 30 $750 (exactly $750) CyberStep, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.