Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Supernatural

Of 34 developers who shipped a Supernatural Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 20 developers shipped in the last year and 46 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 46 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $1.6k → $1.2k → $2.8k → $240 → $210 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 5% $88k (exactly $88,072)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 72
Announced 46
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Puzzle, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,579 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $270, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $88k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lunch Lady older $4.99 9,722 86% 292k $1.5M (exactly $1,455,383) Manic Mice
Sumire older $5.99 887 95% 27k $159k (exactly $159,394) GameTomo Team
Anomalous Coffee Machine 2 $6.99 753 81% 23k $158k (exactly $157,904) HoruBrain Interactive
Mosaic of the Strange $12.99 226 92% 6.8k $88k (exactly $88,072) Mark Ffrench
Mosaic of The Pharaohs $8.99 297 92% 8.9k $80k (exactly $80,101) Mark Ffrench
Lunar Axe older $7.99 136 88% 4.1k $33k (exactly $32,599) Ops Game Studio
Terrorbytes $7.99 51 84% 1.5k $12k (exactly $12,225) Treetop
Miller's Fantasy: PARTY $8.99 42 83% 1.3k $11k (exactly $11,327) R3al Studios
RESEQUENCED older $4.99 75 66% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,228) Based On The Play
Kurokami-sama's Feast older $12.99 27 85% 810 $11k (exactly $10,522) みなとカーニバルWorld
Willie's Nightfall $4.99 65 78% 2.0k $9.7k (exactly $9,730) Runebox Game Studio
DON'T LOOK AT GRANDMA $4.99 64 93% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Danger Sauce LLC
The Fox Hare Disaster: Chapter One $3.99 33 96% 990 $4.0k (exactly $3,950) Dream Oni, Cosmic Boop, Valorware
HANGAR 8 $3.99 29 86% 870 $3.5k (exactly $3,471) Twin Tail Digital
Dream fallen remake - village $4.99 19 68% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Paulo Pereira, Beatriz Pereira Arabe

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.