Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Solitaire game?

Collectathon + Solitaire

Only 13 developers shipped a Collectathon Solitaire game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Number Stomper, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Solitaire
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $891 → $0 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Solitaire: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $891 (exactly $891)
Top 5% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 28
Announced 10
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Solitaire; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Logic, Resource Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $4.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Minimalist, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $4.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 9 games average 83% positive over 80 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $1.6k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Faerie Solitaire Dire 2020 · EA · $25k Square Logic 2023 · $7.4k There Will Be No Turkey This Christmas 2021 · $4.8k Abandoned Void 2023 · $2.9k Jubilane 2021 · $2.9k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Faerie Solitaire Dire · EA older $19.99 41 68% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Subsoap
Square Logic older $2.99 82 97% 2.5k $7.4k (exactly $7,355) Climbing Goat Games
There Will Be No Turkey This Christmas older $3.99 40 97% 1.2k $4.8k (exactly $4,788) Creative Hand
Abandoned Void older $2.99 32 56% 960 $2.9k (exactly $2,870) Escovic Games
Jubilane older $5.00 19 94% 570 $2.9k (exactly $2,850) bankbank
No Cat Fights Here older $1.99 35 94% 1.1k $2.1k (exactly $2,090) Minicactus Games
Number Stomper $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) James Castle
Card Streamer Simulator $2.99 17 52% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Scissors Game
Solitaire Deck $4.99 9 77% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Breach Games
CHILL FISHING $0.99 30 90% 900 $891 (exactly $891) Sleepy Giant Creations
OrbHand $2.99 8 100% 240 $718 (exactly $718) Jesus Rugarcia
Word Rave · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Gobico
Foxy The First Steps $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Fox Fabricio Branco
O Monumento $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Allun
Talisman Maker - Mahjong Oracle $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Nalbam
Fight for Olympus · EA $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Floris Adriaan de Vries

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.