Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Shoot 'Em Up?

Collectathon + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 24 developers who shipped a Collectathon Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $26k, ×57 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 18 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 18 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.9k → $359 → $359 → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,689)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $26,982)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 62
Announced 18
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Shoot 'Em Up; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cinematic, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 774 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Epic Battle Fantasy Collection older $7.99 349 95% 10k $84k (exactly $83,655) Matt Roszak
Sophstar older $9.99 94 100% 2.8k $28k (exactly $28,172) Banana Bytes
Look Mum No Computer $14.99 60 98% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) The Bitfather
WAIFU IMPACT older $5.99 148 85% 4.4k $27k (exactly $26,596) Mitsuki Game Studio
Insiders older $13.99 40 80% 1.2k $17k (exactly $16,788) ANG People s.r.o.
Deadtime Defenders $9.99 48 79% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,386) Arcane Embers
The Phoenix Gene VR $24.99 10 100% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) HEROmation
Adventure Rush older $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) MrBoscheinen
Speedollama $8.99 23 95% 690 $6.2k (exactly $6,203) Chaosmonger Studio
GutBuster $4.99 38 100% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) RoyalJellySoftware
Seeker Quest: The Creature Collector $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Jestercraft
Monsters Loot Swag $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) YorkshireRifles
IM LOOPY FOR DOOP LOOPS!!! $4.99 9 88% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) JakeHub, Metater
Monster Rush Survivors $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Cube Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.