Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Science

Of 21 developers who shipped a Science Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×9.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×501 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 15 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 15 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180k → $8.2k → $599 (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,641)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,180)
Top 5% $238k (exactly $238,022)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 39
Announced 15
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 220% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Crafting, Creature Collector
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Cute, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 5,414 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Birds · EA $19.99 2,990 92% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103) Toukana Interactive
Mudborne: Frog Management Sim $7.99 993 96% 30k $238k (exactly $238,022) ellraiser, TNgineers
Monster Lab Simulator · EA $12.99 505 70% 15k $197k (exactly $196,798) Round 3 Studios
Bugaboo Pocket $19.99 300 86% 9.0k $180k (exactly $179,910) Elytra Games
HyperRogue older $9.99 404 97% 12k $121k (exactly $121,079) Zeno Rogue
Bug & Seek older $14.99 203 90% 6.1k $91k (exactly $91,289) So Peculiar
My Little Spider $4.99 389 94% 12k $58k (exactly $58,233) 9FingerGames, Fatal Fawn Games
Fish Lab $6.99 101 77% 3.0k $21k (exactly $21,180) stonecodes
Paleo Dive $19.99 33 84% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) Astra Render
RigidGems Museum $24.99 25 96% 750 $19k (exactly $18,742) FerioWorks
Super reaKtor $4.99 55 100% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) SuperSAZ Studio
MINERALS: Deep Core Mining $6.99 23 78% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) THINK & FEEL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.