Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Runner?

Collectathon + Runner

Of 56 developers who shipped a Collectathon Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 33 developers shipped in the last year and 46 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 46 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $897 → $179 → $119 → $537 → $299 → $0 (still earning) → $420 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $178 (exactly $178)
Top 25% $898 (exactly $898)
Top 5% $7.6k (exactly $7,645)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 144
Announced 46
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Platformer, Action, Racing
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 552 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $7.6k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
Escape from Naraka older $14.99 97 76% 2.9k $44k (exactly $43,621) XeloGames
Dark Succubus $6.99 171 77% 5.1k $36k (exactly $35,859) ZC Game
SUPER 56 older $6.99 146 94% 4.4k $31k (exactly $30,616) Onion Soup Interactive
Otokonoko Fishing older $11.99 72 90% 2.2k $26k (exactly $25,898) mumimumi, veryOK
Skully older $9.99 49 71% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,685) Finish Line Games
Space Ribbon - Slipstream to the Extreme older $3.99 71 57% 2.1k $8.5k (exactly $8,499) Onteca Ltd
Derby Heroines: Run, Bet, Win! $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
Bananitro $3.99 47 100% 1.4k $5.6k (exactly $5,626) Inventario
Felix The Toy older $4.99 36 83% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) XYX Games
✈️Velocity Wings✈️ $9.80 12 91% 360 $3.5k (exactly $3,528) ZhiFeng Games
Garden Hunt $3.99 27 100% 810 $3.2k (exactly $3,232) CREA CLAN, カミエナ / KamiEna
Tootum $8.99 11 54% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) Douglas Oliveira
Hirai Nya $3.99 17 94% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) FirePillar2
Animal Run Relay $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) youdoyou.motto
Get Clucked $2.99 15 93% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) ThatCarrotFella

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.