Do I ship it?

Games › Collectathon › Collectathon + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Romance

Of 30 developers who shipped a Romance Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $59k, ×126 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 52 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 52 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $653 → $2.9k → $0 → $1.5k → $748 → $3.1k → $1.5k (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,903)
Top 5% $60k (exactly $59,710)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 122
Announced 52
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$16.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $16.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,482 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $59k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Littlewood 2020 · $2.7M Mosaique Neko Waifus 4 2021 · $637k Mosaique Neko Waifus 2 2020 · $384k Maid Cafe on Electric Street 2024 · $339k Mosaique Neko Waifus 3 2020 · $275k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Littlewood older $14.99 6,083 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,525) Sean Young
Mosaique Neko Waifus 4 older $4.99 4,255 94% 128k $637k (exactly $636,974) Lil Hentai Games
Mosaique Neko Waifus 2 older $4.99 2,563 94% 77k $384k (exactly $383,681) Lil Hentai Games
Maid Cafe on Electric Street $18.99 595 82% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) Adventurer's Tavern
Mosaique Neko Waifus 3 older $4.99 1,840 94% 55k $275k (exactly $275,448) Lil Hentai Games
Mosaique Neko Waifus 5 older $5.99 1,328 93% 40k $239k (exactly $238,642) Lil Hentai Games
Old School older $14.99 442 83% 13k $199k (exactly $198,767) MDickie
Cumrooms $11.99 166 86% 5.0k $60k (exactly $59,710) Moon Loom Studio
Elvenfoundry $34.99 46 67% 1.4k $48k (exactly $48,286) SunbathGames
Ghostwriter Workshop $10.99 137 94% 4.1k $45k (exactly $45,169) 秘密結社マテンロウ計画, Studio Dragonet
MODEL Debut3 #nicola $39.99 34 79% 1.0k $41k (exactly $40,790) 株式会社ラクジン
Desktop Kitten Girl $3.99 277 86% 8.3k $33k (exactly $33,157) KDream
猫猫旅行社欢迎你！ Momo's Revitalization Project! $24.99 24 91% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) CyberStep, Inc.
Monospaced Lovers $19.99 30 90% 900 $18k (exactly $17,991) Scarlet String Studios
Snap & Grab $7.99 58 91% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,903) No Goblin
花奴令 Huanu Poems $3.99 115 91% 3.5k $14k (exactly $13,766) Fishfarms, Hokyin Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.