Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Roguelite?

Collectathon + Roguelite

Of 78 developers who shipped a Collectathon Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×218 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 92 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 92 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 78
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.8k → $838 → $599 → $1.8k → $1.5k → $599 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 78
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,823)
Top 5% $104k (exactly $103,592)
Developers, 2 yr 78
Released games 147
Announced 92
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.49 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.49 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 6,957 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Birds · EA $19.99 2,990 92% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103) Toukana Interactive
Little Noah: Scion of Paradise older $14.99 2,172 92% 65k $977k (exactly $976,748) Cygames, Inc., Grounding Inc.
Metal Bringer $19.99 1,109 87% 33k $665k (exactly $665,067) ALPHAWING Inc.
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
沉默的蟋蟀 older $14.99 1,130 88% 34k $508k (exactly $508,161) 蓬莱飞鱼工作室
Galactic Mining Corp older $12.99 868 84% 26k $338k (exactly $338,260) Windybeard
Samurai Bringer older $9.99 1,012 87% 30k $303k (exactly $303,296) ALPHAWING Inc.
BORE BLASTERS older $9.99 709 80% 21k $212k (exactly $212,487) 8BitSkull
Full Mojo Rampage older $12.99 524 85% 16k $204k (exactly $204,203) Over the Top Games
Agrivore: Incremental Farming $6.99 494 70% 15k $104k (exactly $103,592) verty
IGNOBLE $6.99 331 82% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) Retromagine
Tomomon $14.99 126 70% 3.8k $57k (exactly $56,662) ManicBuild Studio
Gamestonk Simulator: Gone Rogue $13.49 106 83% 3.2k $43k (exactly $42,898) simsum
Gold Miner:Classic Edition $3.99 350 82% 11k $42k (exactly $41,895) GameRival
Duncrush $3.99 321 82% 9.6k $38k (exactly $38,424) Golden Pick Games
Gold and Graves $5.99 180 86% 5.4k $32k (exactly $32,346) Yoon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.