Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Puzzle game?

Collectathon + Puzzle

Of 325 developers who shipped a Collectathon Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 463 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×237 the market median. Revenue is up 185% on the market; 463 games are announced against 194 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 463 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 325
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $1.9k → $3.7k → $898 → $1.0k → $598 → $657 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 325
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,865)
Top 5% $113k (exactly $112,672)
Developers, 2 yr 325
Released games 1,079
Announced 463
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Hidden Object
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 35,226 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 266 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 463 games are announced against 194 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
LEGO® Batman™: The Videogame older $19.99 12,850 89% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,706,145) Traveller's Tales
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
Pumpkin Jack older $29.99 7,416 91% 222k $6.7M (exactly $6,672,175) Evil Raptor
Librarian: Tidy Up the Arcane Library! $5.99 24,497 94% 735k $4.4M (exactly $4,402,111) ArtRising
Webbed older $9.99 13,820 97% 415k $4.1M (exactly $4,141,854) Sbug Games
Supraland Six Inches Under older $19.99 3,975 96% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) Supra Games
Tinykin older $24.99 2,870 97% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,639) Splashteam
Ogu and the Secret Forest older $24.99 1,817 94% 55k $1.4M (exactly $1,362,205) Moonlab Studio, Sinkhole Studio
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
Flower older $6.99 4,790 79% 144k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,463) thatgamecompany
Yooka-Replaylee $29.99 1,045 92% 31k $940k (exactly $940,186) Playtonic Games
Supermarket Chaos $4.99 3,266 92% 98k $489k (exactly $488,920) BunnyHop
Proverbs $8.99 1,786 96% 54k $482k (exactly $481,684) Mark Ffrench
Find Matt's Cats $19.99 719 98% 22k $431k (exactly $431,184) Matt Roszak
Biped 2 $14.99 813 71% 24k $366k (exactly $365,606) META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy… (META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy Studios)
Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX $39.99 257 76% 7.7k $308k (exactly $308,323) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Secret Agent Wizard Boy and the International Crime Syndicate · EA $9.99 931 96% 28k $279k (exactly $279,021) John Szymanski, Evan Szymanski
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.